It seems that, finally, everyone is talking about next year's F1 driver lineup. And quite right too - it's fairly exciting! Here's what I would like to/think will happen.
Renault
With Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes locked down for 2012, the first talking point is Renault (who should be Lotus next year!). They have four drivers on their books already, and as such the fight for those two seats is an internal one. However, what does or doesn't happen here could have an impact elsewhere.
Much depends on whether Robert Kubica, and whether he is able to return for the start of 2012. If he is declared ready to race, he will get one seat, for sure.
The battle for the other seat would be between current driver Vitaly Petrov, Bruno Senna and Romain Grosjean. I believe that all three are good drivers and all deserve a place on the grid at Melbourne next March.
I believe that Petrov's contract does extend into 2012, but we've seen in recent years with Raikkonen and Liuzzi that that means nothing. Commerical opportunities, for both Group Lotus and Genii, are his main playing card.
Senna seems to be doing a good job versus Petrov after coming in mid-season. Like Petrov, he has huge commerical potential, particularly for Group Lotus.
Those who doubted Grosjean after his first attempt at F1 need proving wrong. Going up against Fernando Alonso with no experience of F1 or the car was never going to be easy. He did what was expected of him this year when Boullier and Gravity placed him in GP2, so he really does deserve another crack at F1. He too has commerical potential, mainly in France, where the government are keen on Renault as well as Boullier reintroducing a French influence in F1.
Verdict: Should Kubica return, I think that Senna will be retained alongside him by Group Lotus. I would be happy with this, providing Grosjean gets a chance somewhere else.
If Kubica is not ready to return for Melbourne, is is tough to say who will get a chance alongside Senna. With Petrov having had two years in the car, I would hope Grosjean gets the chance.
Force India
The next team to focus on is Force India, who again have an internal battle over their seats. Paul di Resta looks likely to remain after an impressive rookie season, with the second seat an-all German battle between Adrian Sutil and the reserve driver Nico Hulkenburg.
Sutil has been racing with the Silverstone-based team for five seasons, and has certainly proven himself to be capable. However, while he looked good against Fisichella and Liuzzi, he has been made to look fairly average against di Resta this year. He doesn't have the potential to be one of the sport's best drivers, something that is hardly surprising considering he got his F1 chance thanks to his personal sponsorship and relationship with Colin Kolles rather than showing any future-world-champion promise in the lower ranks.
Talent was something that Hulkenburg certainly showed on his way up. Although he had a slow start with Williams in 2010, his pole position in Brazil demonstrated his skills. Forced out of Grove when the team needed some Venezuelan dollars, he found refuge at Force India. He may not have the experience of Sutil, but if improved performances are what the team's new shareholder Sahara wants, Hulkenburg is their man.
Verdict: Mallya has said this weekend that sponsorship is not important. This makes it even more likely that Hulkenburg will get the prize. My opinion is that Sutil has certainly had his chance, and that Hulkenberg really deserves a seat somewhere.
Toro Rosso
With Sauber all sorted for next year, we move onto Toro Rosso. The contenders for the two seats here would seem to be incumbents Jaimie Alguersuari and Sebastien Buemi, as well as Red Bull Juniors Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne.
While Vergne could well be the most talented of the quartet, I'm going to rule him out of a Toro Rosso drive for now. Ricciardo was ready for it 12 months ago after his Formula Renault 3.5 season, but there wasn't the opportunity for him to make the move. I feel that Vergne needs to wait for his chance as well, getting some Friday practice in between now and the middle of next year perhaps.
Alguersuari struggled in the first races of 2011, and seemed very close to getting dropped for Ricciardo. However, he has since turned it round and has outscored Buemi 22 points to 15. The Spaniard showed greater potential than Buemi pre-F1, and seems to just about have the upper hand right now. Add in the fact that Alguersuari is only in his second full season compared to Buemi's third, and you have to say that Buemi's time is coming to an end. The influence of the team's new Spanish sponsor Cepsa could also play a part here in siding with Alguersuari.
Ricciardo deserves his chance with Toro Rosso after a solid start with HRT. Therefore one of the current drivers has to go, and for the reasons given above that will have to be Buemi.
Verdict: Ricciardo will get his promotion to Red Bull's B-team. Buemi, like Sutil, has shown himself to be capable at this level but doesn't quite have what it takes against the potential of drivers like Ricciardo and Vergne. Alguersuari gets another six months to show what he can do.
Williams
It is sad that we have to talk about Williams so far down this post. Of their current drivers, Pastor Maldonado seems likely to remain thanks to his sponsorship after a first season where he has shown good pace in qualifying if not in the races. A number of incidents, particularly in practice haven't helped his cause. He would have outscored teammate Rubens Barrichello had he not been knocked out of sixth place in Monaco by Hamilton.
The team seem to have had enough of Barrichello, for whatever reason. He thinks he deserves to stay with the team, but he should think himself lucky that he wasn't left on the sidelines at the end of 2008 when Honda were due to replace him with Senna before they withdrew. The car may well have been terrible, but it could well be worth trying someone else.
Rumours suggest that Kimi Raikkonen is in the frame, and may well have signed. This deal most likely depends on the team gaining investement, most likely from Qatar. I can't really see Kimi being interested in a car that can't make it into Q3, but there you go.
Should the Raikkonen deal not happen, that man Sutil would be in pole position. Not only does he have some experience of driving for a team trying to drag itself up the grid, but he also has some personal sponsorship, which could be all important.
There are some other options for the team though, including whichever driver(s) loses out at Renault. Their Renault engine deal for next year could make signing Senna or Grosjean possible. Ferrari reserve Jules Bianchi has also been mentioned, and deserves his crack at F1 despite a disappoitning couple of years in GP2.
Verdict: If the Raikkonen deal doesn't go through then anyone could turn up alongside Maldonado, but Sutil would have to be favourite thanks to his sponsorship.
Lotus
And now we're onto the new teams, starting with Lotus, who will actually be Caterham or something. Heikki Kovalainen has consistently outperformed Jarno Trulli over the past two years and as such is likely to remain unless he is tempted away by someone like Williams.
Trulli was announced earlier in the year as having signed a contract with the team for next year, though there does seem to be some uncertainty about this in the paddock.
Verdict: We'll assume that both are staying on, but personally I think Trulli is well past his best and his seat would be best going to someone like a Grosjean, a Sutil or a Buemi. Or even a complete rookie like Bianchi or Charles Pic.
HRT
Aah, HRT. Good old HRT. Just like 12 months ago, who knows what will happen here? Ricciardo will likely have moved on up to Toro Rosso, and if the Red Bull link continues then Vergne could well come in at HRT.
Liuzzi could remain, but that likely depends on who comes under threat of becoming extinct in F1 terms, just as Tonio was before singing for HRT. Sutil and Buemi are possible options here.
The team's new owners, Thesan Capital, seem to want a Spanish driver, with WTCC's Javier Villa linked. A better option may be to take dominant European F3 champion Roberto Merhi on as a third driver for future seasons.
Verdict: I'll hope for a combination of Liuzzi and Buemi here, but taking on the well-backed Charles Pic from GP2 could be a more realistic option here.
Virgin
Surprisingly, Timo Glock is happy to stay with the team for next year and beyond. His teammate is less certain though. Jerome D'Ambrosio has surprised, but there may be better options around.
Robert Wickens has been sponsored by Marussia in Formula Renault 3.5 this year, where he won the title. He is deserving of a place in the team, but relies on a shareholder dipping into its own pockets to replace the lost funds brought by D'Ambrosio. However, having invested in Wickens, the only way Marussia will get a return would be for Wickens to race for the team. Going by his junior career, Wickens would be able to match Glock more often than the Belgian.
If the team needs a driver with sponsorship money, it should look no further than Charles Pic. Media reports have suggested that the Frenchman is in talks with the team. Another option would be Pic's GP2 teammate Giedo van der Garde, who is also well backed and was snubbed last year in favour of D'Ambrosio.
Verdict: I would most certainly like Wickens to get a drive alongside Glock, but I would also be happy to see Pic get his chance, which looks more likely.
